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AUSTIN (KXAN) – The Climate Prediction Center announced Thursday that La Niña has officially begun. Detailed analysis found The Girl started in December 2024 with a weak La Niña favored for the rest of this winter.
La Niña is the cool phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) which is marked by sea surface water temperatures 0.5 degrees Celsius (about 32.9 degrees Fahrenheit) below of the climatological mean in a key area of the eastern Pacific.
Those water temperatures hit that key metric in December, marking the long-awaited arrival of La Niña.
La Niña is marked by sea surface water temperatures in a key area of the eastern Pacific. (Image: NOAA/CPC)
La Niña usually has the greatest impact in the Northern Hemisphere in the winter season, as the jet stream or storm track is pushed further north, keeping it cooler in the Pacific Northwest and in the upper Midwest, while warmer, drier temperatures are more common in southern states. .
The photo above illustrates a typical La Niña pattern. (KXAN Photo/Eric Henrikson)
Much of the South is currently facing or preparing for winter weather. The La Niña pattern doesn’t mean it won’t be cold, wet or wintry. Rather, winter tends to be warmer and drier for southern areas.
How long will La Niña last?
This is expected to be a short-lived La Niña with a Neutral ENSO pattern (neither cool nor warm phase) returning to the March-May period.
Last winter (2023-2024) was an El Niño winter marked by cooler and wetter weather for southern states. The last La Nina ended in 2023 after an unusual three-year stretch.
What about the rest of 2025?
Although weather patterns such as ENSO are predictable, they become more complicated before the spring season ends.
ENSO probabilities are illustrated in a NOAA/CPC chart. (Image: NOAA/CPC)
Odds are that ENSO-neutral conditions will continue into next summer and fall. While neutral is favored, the odds of another La Niña are substantially higher than the return of El Niño as we move into the fall months.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
