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The collapse of Bashar Assad’s regime in Syria throws a wrench into the counter-ISIS mission for the approximately 900 US troops in the country, while complicating Washington’s allies in the region.
The US carried out a mass preventive strike against IS at the weekend, when Syria’s capital Damascus fell to a rebel coalition led by Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and Assad fled to Moscow.
While Assad’s main backers, Iran and Russia, are expected to bear the brunt of the collapse, the US and its Kurdish allies will now have to work with a largely backed rebel coalition by Turkey, which considers the Kurdish fighters terrorists.
The new coalition emerging in Damascus could also have major implications for relations between other US allies in the region, including Iraq, Israel and Jordan.
Michael Rubin, director of policy analysis at the Middle East Forum, said he was concerned whether HTS would actually try to restore peace in Syria and maintain independence from Ankara.
“What we will see is (a) decision point in the coming days, whether HTS will be a Syrian nationalist and rule for all of Syria, or whether they will basically be mercenaries for Turkey,” he said. he said “And that in itself is very concerning.”
HTS, formerly known as the Al-Nusra Front, is an offshoot of Al Qaeda but has tried to rebrand itself in recent years while ruling Idlib province in northwestern Syria.
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Golani has made overtures to the international community, promising to protect the rights of minorities and bring Syria to a state of government.
“People who fear Islamic government have either seen bad implementations of it or don’t understand it properly.” he told CNN last week. “We are talking about a bigger project: we are talking about building Syria. … Syria deserves a system of government that is institutional, not one where a single ruler makes arbitrary decisions.”
His comments are being met with cautious optimism in Washington.
President Biden signaled in a Sunday speech was a “historic opportunity” for Syria after the fall of the Assad regime after 50 years, calling the development a “fundamental act of justice”.
But Biden also warned it was “a time of risk and uncertainty” as he pledged to continue the mission against ISIS in Syria and support regional allies.
“As we all turn to the question of what comes next, the United States will work with our partners and stakeholders in Syria to help them seize an opportunity to manage the risks,” Biden said.
Communication will be difficult, given that the US has designated HTS as a terrorist organization, and the Pentagon said on Monday that it does not have direct channels with the group, whose leader, Golani, has a $10 million bounty on his head.
Biden and senior US officials have passed messages to HTS through Turkey, but are reportedly considering whether to establish direct communication, he said. The New York Times.
Turkey has also designated HTS as a terrorist group, but has heavily funded the opposition coalition led by Golani. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has largely kept a public distance from developments in Syria, but Ankara acknowledged reaching out to Assad as forces neared Damascus.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin he spoke to his Turkish counterpartYaşar Güler on Sunday, and both agreed to avoid creating any risk to US forces or the counter-ISIS mission in Syria.
Turkey has long criticized the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which control territory in northeastern Syria alongside US forces to counter IS. Turkey and the United States are NATO allies but have long clashed over Washington’s support for the SDF. The Kurdish people are stateless and a minority in Turkey, and some of them have joined US-designated terrorist groups such as the Kurdistan Workers’ Party fighting for an autonomous state.
Now, Turkey’s expanding role in Syria is raising fears that Ankara will put further pressure on the US and the SDF, which clashed with Turkish forces this week, according to to a Syrian rights group.
Steven Simon, a senior fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the new Syria would be a “difficult problem” for the United States and Turkey.
“The Turks accurately see the US presence as a deterrent against any Turkish attempt to subdue the SDF,” he said, also predicting a fight in Washington over the issue. “So far, the American bureaucracy has been divided between those who believe that the US should stick with the Kurds in the mission to ‘defeat ISIS’ and those who think that the alliance, stupid and NATO’s responsibilities must take priority.”
Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters Monday that while there is a degree of uncertainty about what comes next, she was confident the United States can continue its mission against ISIS.
A senior US official said on Sunday that the US has a “proven record of protecting positions” in northeastern Syria with the SDF and would continue to operate in the country.
“We are engaged with everyone and we have ways to communicate with everyone,” the official told reporters, adding that there was a desire to de-escalate tensions, including between the SDF and Turkey. “Something that I think we are working on, to deconflict and de-escalate as best as possible. And this effort is very constant.”
Elliott Abrams, a former special representative to Iran and Venezuela under the first Trump administration, said Monday at an event with the Jewish Institute for National Security of America that Washington should engage with Ankara to understand their goals.
“The question here that we have to think about and talk about with Turkey is what do they want? What are their goals here?” he asked “They are one of the big winners. … What do they want now?”
The US mission could be further complicated by President-elect Trump, whose more isolationist views are likely to put Washington in a looser position on Syria when he takes office in late January.
Trump, who tried to pull US troops out of Syria in his first term, he said in a post on social platform X over the weekend that it was “not our fight” and the US should “have nothing to do” with events in the country.
“Syria is a disaster, but it is not our friend,” he wrote. “DO NOT PARTICIPATE!”
Joze Pelayo, associate director of the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative, said Trump should take the opportunity in Syria to work with the incoming government and encourage free elections.
“The transition in Syria presents an opportunity for the United States to regain influence in Damascus and encourage any emerging Syrian authority to contribute to regional stability, coexistence and peace,” he wrote. “A future Syrian administration is likely to appreciate U.S. support and even become a friend of the U.S., given the widespread animosity toward Iran and Russia for their support of the Assad regime.”
If the US pulls out of Syria, it will also come at a time when the roughly 2,500 US troops in Iraq for a mission against ISIS are expected to begin drawing down over the next two years, which could significantly diminish the US role in the Middle East if combined with a Syrian withdrawal.
The Quincy Institute’s Simon said Trump will likely try to pull out of Syria, but noted there is a “significant constituency within the government and Congress to keep those troops there.”
“If you leave, if you take these guys out and there’s a terrorist attack on Americans … you’re going to be blamed,” said Abrams, the former Trump official. “It’s not worth it. Keep them there.”
HTS and rebel forces began sweeping from northwestern Syria to Damascus just over a week ago, launching a stunning offensive at a time when Russia was distracted by Ukraine and Iran and their representatives focused on the conflict with Israel. One of Assad’s main allies, Iran-backed Hezbollah, has been decimated by Israeli attacks in Lebanon.
Instability in Syria is likely to complicate the role of US allies in the region, with some experts warning of instability in neighboring Jordan, which has seen internal unrest under the current government, or Iran exerting more influence on Iraq, where it supports powerful militias. , now that Tehran has lost its influence in Syria.
Biden called Jordan’s King Abdullah II on Monday and “emphasized America’s support for Jordan’s stability,” according to a White House readout.
Iraq has reportedly fortified its border with Syria in recent days and has been in talks with HTS.
Jake Sullivan, White House National Security Adviser he said in an act over the weekend the US focused on defeating ISIS, supporting allies and preventing a humanitarian crisis in Syria.
“The United States will not dive into the middle of a Syrian civil war,” he said. “What we will do is focus on American national security priorities and interests.”
The biggest player may be Israel, which has long viewed Syria with a critical eye because of Assad’s close ties to his nemesis Iran, the main backer of the Palestinian militant group Hamas, which is fighting Israeli troops in Gaza.
Israeli forces moved into a demilitarized zone between Israel and Syria over the weekend, expanding from the Golan Heights, which Israel took from Damascus in 1967. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said it was a move temporary during a fragile transitional period in Syria.
“They don’t have the luxury of living 8,000 miles away in Washington. They won’t believe the promises,” said the Middle East Forum’s Rubin, referring to Israel. “So if that means a buffer zone for a short period of time until the Syrian government consolidates control, then they can make their judgement.”
