The Speaker’s Lobby: The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Electing a Speaker of the House

The Constitution dictates that the 119th Congress begins at noon on Friday.

And the first order of business in the House is to elect the constitutional officer of the legislative branch of government: the Speaker of the House.

Only the House votes for the president. And the House can do nothing – I repeat, nothing – until it chooses a president.

Deputies cannot be sworn in until the Chamber play a speaker and he or she is under oath. Then the speaker swears in the rest of the body, en masse. The House must then adopt a package of rules to govern day-to-day operations. Only then can the Chamber debate bills, vote and build committees for hearings.

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If the House does not choose a president in the first vote, it must proceed to a second vote.

And on and on.

Consider for a moment that the House had not even taken a second vote for the President in a century before the Donnybrook two years ago. It took four votes to re-elect the late Speaker of the House, Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.

What is past is prologue of the Chamber. Consider how the House consumed 15 rounds spread over five days before electing former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., in January 2023. The chairmanship remained vacant — and so the House he froze- for 22 days after Republicans left McCarthy nine. months later House Republicans selected House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., as speaker. Scalise withdrew his name before there was even a vote. House rulers selected Representative Jim Jordan, Republican of Ohio, to become Speaker. But Jordan lost three consecutive votes for the president in the House, supporting each vote. House Republicans then anointed House Majority Leader Tom Emmer, R-Minn., as speaker. Emmer withdrew hours later.

House Republicans eventually nominated House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., for the job. The Louisiana Republican won on the floor. But some conservatives have been disappointed with Johnson ever since. They have outlined how he has handled multiple interim expense bills since last November. They didn’t like that he allowed a bill to help Ukraine. They objected to him making another interim spending bill in September. They really didn’t like how he worked with Democrats on important and must-have legislative measures. And then there was the misstep of the astonishing 1,500-page interim spending package than Mr. Trump and Elon Musk pulverized from afar in December. Johnson then did President-elect Trump’s bidding with another spending package, which included an increase in the debt ceiling. But 38 House Republicans balked at that bill.

So Johnson’s tenure has been bumpy. And that’s why he’s stuck on Friday afternoon during the presidential vote. Everyone on Capitol Hill is in a bind when it comes to getting it over with quickly.

Here’s what will happen at noon on Friday:

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Acting House Clerk Kevin McCumber will preside until the House elects a speaker. The first order of business is a “Convocation of the House”. This is where the House determines how many of its elected members are there, simply by voting “present”. The House should enter with 434 members: 219 Republicans and 215 Democrats. There should be a vacancy. Former Rep. Matt Gaetz, R-Florida, resigned in the fall and said he did not “intend” to serve in the new Congress, despite winning re-election.

Watch if there are any absences in this call of the Chamber. Fox is told that Democrats who have struggled with health issues recently, including Reps. Raul Grijalva, D-Ariz., Dwight Evans, D-Penn., and former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., they will probably be there. But electing the president is about math. How many lawmakers report to the House floor will dictate the margins in the president’s vote.

Then it’s on to the nomination speeches. Incoming House Republican Conference Chairwoman Lisa McClain, R-Michigan, will nominate Johnson for chair. House Democratic Caucus Chairman Pete Aguilar, D-Calif., will nominate House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, DN.Y. Then anyone else can put someone’s name in the nomination.

The Chamber then calls up the list of elected deputies in alphabetical order. Each member stands up and responds verbally, calling their choice by name. Reps. Alma Adams, DN.C., Robert Aderholt, R-Ala., and the aforementioned Aguilar are the first names off the block.

But legislators can vote for whoever they want. This includes people who are not members of the House. That’s why over the years there have been votes for the late Gen. Colin Powell, Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., former Sen. Jeff Sessions, R-Ala. and former US Comptroller General David Walker.

Here’s what Johnson, or anyone else, needs to do to win the presidency:

The winning candidate must obtain an absolute majority of all members voting for a candidate by name.

So let’s say there are 434 members and they all vote for someone by name. The magic number is 218. If Johnson gets all 219 Republican votes, he wins. If Johnson gets 218 votes, he also wins. But 217? no dice Under these circumstances, Johnson would have prospectively beaten Jeffries, 217-215, with two votes for other candidates. But the “most votes” does not win. 217 is not an absolute majority of the members of the House voting for someone by name. The House must hold ANOTHER vote to elect a Speaker.

Fox is told there are 12 to 17 Republicans who could vote for someone other than Johnson. And some Republicans are being cautious with their votes.

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Here’s something to see: Members voting “present”.

Instead of voting for someone other than Johnson, some Republicans may protest by simply voting “present.” A “present” vote does not count against Johnson.

So let’s do some hypothetical math here:

Let’s say 434 members voted. Jeffries secures the support of 215 Democrats. Three Republicans vote “present.” In other words, don’t vote for any candidate by name. Johnson gets 216 votes. It is the one with the most votes. But most importantly, only 431 members voted for someone by name. 216 is an absolute majority of 431. 434 does not matter in these circumstances. So Johnson becomes speaker.

But there is a serious danger that too many Republicans will vote “present.”

Consider this scenario:

All 215 Democrats vote for Jeffries. But five Republicans vote “present.” Johnson registers 214 votes. 429 members voted for someone by name. The magic number here is 215. Guess who the speaker is? Jeffries. He gathered an absolute majority of all deputies who voted for a candidate by name.

As they say in the movies, “You play a very dangerous game, Mr. Bond.”

With such a slim margin in the House, Republicans they are absolutely tinkering with fire if they are too cute in half. yes Some conservatives may not want to re-elect Johnson as president. But they certainly don’t want Jeffries.

So it’s hard to say what will happen on Friday afternoon. If the House wavers too much, that could delay the certification of the Electoral College vote on Monday. The House and Senate are due to meet in a joint session of Congress on January 6 to certify the election results. There is no president of the Chamber? No joint session.

But something else is likely to develop if this drags on. Johnson loyalists and mainstream Republicans have had it with right-wing ideologues, the Freedom Caucus and other independents. Expect an all-out brawl between these two factions if Republicans scramble to elect a president.

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And as we wrote before, what is past is prologue.

A prolonged battle for the presidency serves as a prologue to the infighting between Republicans when it comes to governing. That’s to say nothing of the implementation of a lone plank of President-elect Trump’s agenda.