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The White House is worried Iran’s weakened position will prompt the regime to pursue a nuclear weapon, and national security adviser Jake Sullivan is coordinating with the Trump team on that concern.
Iran has endured a year of setbacks amid Israeli assaults on its proxy forces and a withdrawal from Syria amid a takeover by Sunni Muslim forces hostile to Iran’s Shiite government.
Israeli attacks on Iranian facilities, including missile factories and air defenses, have reduced Iran’s conventional military capabilities, Sullivan told CNN on Sunday.
“What I’ve found over the last four years is that when good things happen, like Iran being weaker than before, bad things are often right around the corner,” Sullivan said.
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“If you’re Iran right now and you’re looking around at the fact that your conventional capability has been reduced, your proxies have been reduced, your primary client state has been removed, Assad has fallen, it’s no wonder that there are voices saying, ‘Hey, maybe we should go get a nuke right now,'” the departing national security official said.
“They’re saying it publicly, actually. They’re saying, maybe we need to review our nuclear doctrine. A doctrine that has said, we’re going to have a civilian nuclear program and certain capabilities, but we’re not going to have a nuclear bomb,” he added. “It’s a risk we’re trying to monitor now.”
Although Iran insists its nuclear program is peaceful, it is expanded uranium enrichment from the last Trump administration to 60% purity, a step away from the 90% required for a nuclear weapon.
Last week, the UK, Germany and France publicly called on Iran to “reverse its nuclear escalation”, arguing that there is “no credible civilian justification” for stockpiling 60% uranium.
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Sullivan said there was a risk that Iran would abandon its pledge not to build nuclear weapons.
“It’s a risk that we’re trying to monitor now. It’s a risk that I’m personally reporting to the incoming team,” Sullivan said, adding that he was also consulting with Israel.
Trump, who takes office on January 20, could regain its “maximum pressure” policy to cripple Iran’s oil financing.
Sullivan held out hope that Trump could come in and use Iran’s weakened position to get them to agree to a new nuclear deal.
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“Perhaps he can come at this time, with the situation Iran is in, and reach a nuclear deal that will curb Iran’s long-term nuclear ambitions,” he said.
The Trump team is currently weighing its options for preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons, including pre-emptive airstrikes.