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The Champions League is set for a dramatic final week with some big names, most notably Manchester City, bowing out to avoid elimination.
There were plenty of skeptics when UEFA unveiled the new format for its first competition, but it provided some good stories ahead of the eighth round.
The biggest is whether City, the 2023 winners and four-time defending Premier League champions, will avoid elimination.
So what do we know so far?
Eight of the best guaranteed: Liverpool, Barcelona
Top-24 guaranteed (at least): Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, Celtic
Uncertain progression: PSV, Club Brugge, Benfica, PSG, Sporting, Stuttgart, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar Donetsk
Eliminated: Bologna, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, Girona, Crvena Zvezda Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys
Another match day! 😲#UCL pic.twitter.com/jEYfEM9kTC
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 22, 2025
Possible scenarios
First eight (places 1-8)
It takes a mathematical miracle to beat Arsenal and Inter Milan, they are as good as passing.
The same can be said for Atletico Madrid and AC Milan.
That leaves Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen as maybes. With Leverkusen hosting lowly Sparta Prague, it seems unlikely that Xabi Alonso’s men will fail to progress. Atalanta has to visit Barcelona, which is a much more difficult task.
If the Europa League champions don’t get stuck in Catalonia, Aston Villa could take advantage and push into the top eight with a win over Celtic at Villa Park.
Playoff (places 9-24)
There are some big names currently floating around in positions nine to 24 – Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain to name but three.
Madrid and Bayern will be looking to win their final games to clinch the top spot, meaning they won’t be able to face another team ranked nine to 16.
PSG’s hopes received a major boost after their incredible comeback from 2-0 down to defeat Manchester City 4-2 at the Parc des Princes last night.
Those who watch from the outside (places 25-36)
City head the list of three teams who are currently outside the play-off places but can still progress. Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk are also on the list.
Pep Guardiola’s expensively assembled side are two points off a play-off place and must beat Club Brugge at the Etihad next week to have any chance. In normal seasons that would be seen as a gift, but City have been uncharacteristically poor this season and will come up against a Brugge side unbeaten in 19 games.
All other parties are eliminated.
Here are the Opta Supercomputer projections after tonight’s games and with just one matchday remaining in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League League Stage.
Stay tuned https://t.co/EZ2xKssZGg ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/yoJYbJOBry
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 22, 2025
How do the playoffs work?
The teams that finish from nine to 16 are seeded and will play the team that finished from 17 to 24 in two games with the second leg at home.
The teams are divided into pairs for a mini draw. So the teams that finish in ninth and tenth place will play against the teams that finished in 23rd or 24th place. Likewise, the teams that finished in 11th and 12th place will play against the teams that finished in 21st or 22nd place.
The eight sides who win the play-off round will advance to the round of 16 where they will face the eight teams who have automatically qualified through the group stage.
When is the playoff draw?
The draw will take place on Friday 31st January at 11am GMT.
ℹ️ New format. New draw.#UCLdraw | #UELdraw | #UECLdraw pic.twitter.com/QKTwVPMhQU
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) August 20, 2024
When are the playoff games played?
They are performed over two weeks.
The first matches will be played on February 11 and 12, and the return matches a week later, on February 18 and 19.
