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President Trump is turning up the heat on Russian President Vladimir Putin in his first days in office, seeking to pressure the Russian leader to come to the negotiating table for a deal to end the war in Ukraine.
Just over 48 hours since his return to the White House, Trump said Putin is “destroying his country” with the nearly three-year war against Kiev and threatened to increase sanctions on Russia and its enablers if an agreement is quickly reached.
He described his threats as flattery, saying he loves the Russian people and has “always had a very good relationship with President Putin.”
“I’m not looking to hurt Russia,” Trump posted on his social media site Truth Social on Wednesday. “I’m going to do Russia, whose economy is failing, and President Putin, a HUGE FAVOR. Stand up now and STOP this ridiculous war! It’s only going to get worse.”
The posts are an opening salvo in Trump’s efforts to show that his policy of “peace through strength” can end Europe’s biggest land war in nearly a century.
The president has seen some first diplomatic successes in the Middle East. He sent his special envoy for the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, to pressure Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to agree to a cease-fire and hostage-release deal with Hamas in the final week of the Biden administration .
But the president has said that resolving Russia’s war in Ukraine is a more difficult challenge compared to the Middle East.
Former President Biden’s team did a great job during a year of negotiations for the final text of the cease-fire between Israel and Hamas. When Trump intervened, he deployed the political capital built up during his first term with Israel and regional partners.
But Russia’s war in Ukraine is a different beast.
Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 marked a shocking violation of the post-World War II order, with Moscow seeking to change the borders of a sovereign country by force.
Ukraine managed to preserve its country, repelling Russian forces around Kiev in those painful early days, but has failed to drive Russia out of roughly 20 percent of Ukrainian territory in the east of the country. It sits on top of the territory that Russia invaded and annexed in 2014, the administrative regions of Luhansk, Donetsk and the Crimean Peninsula.
Three years after the war, Ukrainian forces are struggling to replenish their troops and the population suffers almost daily attacks on civilian areas and energy infrastructure, an attempt to freeze the country during the winter. And Russian forces are allegedly carrying out drone strikes targeting civilians in front-line cities.
Ukrainian public opinion is more and more open to negotiate an end to the war as soon as possible. And Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he is optimistic that Trump’s decision could change the dynamics of the war.
“He can be decisive in this war. He is able to stop Putin or, to put it more fairly, help us stop Putin. He is able to do that,” Zelensky said.
Trump, speaking from the Oval Office on Monday, said he believed Zelensky wanted to make a deal.
“I don’t know if Putin does it, maybe not, I don’t know. He would have to make a deal,” Trump said.
But Russia and Ukraine are not the only players. International coalitions are entrenched on both sides of the struggle, with a number of countries straddling the line.
If Trump wants to exert influence over Russia, he will need unity with Europe, said Sam Greene, director for democratic resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis, a Washington, DC-based think tank.
That could prove difficult if he follows through on his promise to impose heavy tariffs on the continent.
“I think the reality is that Trump doesn’t have, the United States in general doesn’t have, a lot of leverage over either side in this conflict,” Greene said.
“It’s not beyond the realm of possibility that Trump and Waltz and Rubio and whoever is important when it comes to foreign policy sit down and map out all the overlapping and intertwined interests and start prioritizing,” he added. referring to National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Secretary of State Marco Rubio.
“We are not there yet. Until we get there, I think it’s silly for the Russians to feel under a lot of pressure from Washington.”
Zelensky criticized Europe during a speech at the World Economic Forum on Tuesday for failing to take advantage of its power.
“Will President Trump listen to Europe or negotiate with Russia and China without Europe?” he asked in a blunt warning. “Europe must learn to take care of itself fully so that the world cannot afford to ignore it.”
Putin may be damaged by the war, but he is not defeated. The Russian leader has used domestic military production to boost the economy and relied on a network of countries to circumvent international sanctions, from global powers like China and India to international pariahs like Iran and South Korea. north
Chinese President Xi Jinping is Putin’s most important ally in the war, with the two declaring a “boundless partnership” in February 2022, shortly before Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, and a ” new era” for their partnership in May. Both Putin and Xi see the US and democracies as a threat to the survival of their authoritarian regimes.
In a call between Putin and Xi on Monday, the two discussed deepening bilateral ties, while Putin said he was ready for dialogue with the US on Ukraine.
Greene said Putin can probably sell a deal to the Russian public, but would still have a hard time agreeing to stop the war.
“Putin can find a way to raise the mission accomplished flag even if he doesn’t control all of Ukraine or all of the territory that the Russian government has claimed. But what Russia will struggle to do is move away from conflict and confrontation with the West ” Greene said.
