Can Man City, Real Madrid and PSG be eliminated in the rankings?

Ahead of the penultimate day of the Champions League, the current English, Spanish and French champions are in danger of automatic elimination.

When Manchester City visit Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid host Salzburg on Wednesday (both 20:00 GMT), all three of the competition’s heavyweights know a win would make the final matchday that much more enjoyable.

The Champions League’s new 36-team one-league format means teams must finish between ninth and 24th to earn a play-off place for the knockout stages, while automatic promotion as one of the top eight teams is not out of the question for the three sides.

101GreatGoals.com looks at how close each of the established contenders is to the knockout stage and the task ahead of them in the final two matches of this stage.

Man City: Danger in Paris?

Seven points from the first three games put City on course for automatic promotion, only for their subsequent form to mirror their surprising domestic woes since November – by far the worst of Pep Guardiola’s near-conquering reign.

Tame defeats against Sporting and Juventus came from both sides 3-3 draw at home against Feyenoord it was memorable for the wrong reasons, because the champions from the 2022/23 season. led 3-0 after the 74th minute.

That left them a point above the elimination places, albeit with a goal difference of at least four better than any team in the bottom eight.

With PSG unbeaten at home this season and in even greater need of a positive result, a point for City could be welcome and would almost certainly leave their fate in their hands when they host a Club Brugge side who are currently two points clear on January 29 above them. (20 hours).

A win would put them in a stronger position to finish between ninth and 16th and be seeded for the play-off draw. Only two wins would give them a chance of automatic passage.

City were last relegated during the opening stages in 2012/13, when they drew all their home games and lost all three away in a group that also included Ajax, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Manager Roberto Mancini left at the end of the campaign.

Guardiola, who won the competition in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona, ​​has always reached the knockout stages during his 17 years as manager with the Spanish club, Bayern Munich and City.

The Spaniard’s shortest stint in the competition as a manager came in his first season at the Etihad Stadium in 2016/17, when he lost on the now-abolished away goals rule after a 6-6 draw with Monaco in the round of 16.

PSG: In the elimination places

Runners-up in the 2019/20 season. and semi-finalists in two of the last four seasons, Paris are in the most precarious position of the three titans ahead of Round 7, a point short of an elimination place.

Drawing may not be enough to lift them above the line. A point would lift them above Dinamo Zagreb, who are immediately higher, if the Croatian club loses against Arsenal on Wednesday (8 p.m.), but Stuttgart, who are level on points with PSG, expects a victory on Tuesday (8 p.m.) at Slovan. Bratislava is still looking for its first point.

PSG is on an eight-game winning streak, but has not faced potentially dangerous opponents like City along the way. They will be hoping to save their best for last after continuing their European run of one point from four games with a 3-0 win at Salzburg in Round 6.

Defeat would add to the pressure before PSG travel to Stuttgart on January 29 (20:00) to face opponents who have started the year with three straight wins to move up to fourth in the Bundesliga.

Paris have endured a couple of poor campaigns – they were knocked out in the round of 16 in 2021/22. and 2022/23. despite having the likes of Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappe and Neymar in their ranks – but they have progressed from the initial stage each time during their current 12 consecutive years of participation.

The last time they failed at the first competitive hurdle was in 2004/05, when coach Vahid Halilhodžić was replaced by Laurent Fournier in February.

Current manager Luis Enrique has never been eliminated in the first leg while coaching in the Champions League, winning the title in his first season in charge of Barcelona in 2014/15.

The 54-year-old led Paris nine points clear as part of the start of an 18-game unbeaten run in Ligue 1 this season, although they had to come from behind to win 2-1 at Lens on Saturday.

“I’m very happy for the win,” the former Spain coach said afterwards, describing PSG as “in a good dynamic” and carrying “a lot of hope” for the Champions League.

Real Madrid: Holders under threat

Along with City, Madrid were the only team to win all six of their group stage matches en route to extending their own record by winning the Champions League for the 15th time in 2023/24.

Such an early exit seems unthinkable for the dominant force in the competition, but defeats to Lille and Liverpool and a home defeat to Milan mean Madrid are two points above the elimination places.

At home to a 5-1 Salzburg side on Wednesday (20:00), Madrid will be heavy favorites to finish the game looking up – but the end of their two-game winning streak in all competitions could leave them in need of a result a week later (20:00) in Brest, who are currently in the automatic knockout stages.

Even a play-off prospect would be a surprise for a team containing Vinicius Jr., Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, not least because Madrid have reached at least the semi-finals in 14 of the last 16 seasons.

They have never been relegated at the first opportunity in 70 years of participation, although they were knocked out in the round of 16 in 2018/19, sacking two managers in their first season after leaving the best scorer of the Champions League of all time Cristiano Ronaldo.

They were relegated at the same stage the following season, losing both legs of the round of 16 2-1 to City under Zinedine Zidane.

Manager Carlo Ancelotti he won the Champions League twice as a coach with Milan and three times as Madrid boss, but the most successful coach in the history of the competition was eliminated three times in the group stage.

Ancelotti’s Parma lost just one of their six games but were still eliminated in 1997/98, when the runners-up were relegated. The Italian then finished bottom of the group with Juventus in the 2000/01 season. and third with Napoli in the 2018/19 season.

When are the Champions League knockout stage playoffs?

The teams that finish between the top and the bottom eight will enter the two-match play-off in the knockout stage.

The first matches will be played on February 11 and 12, followed by the return matches a week later. The draw to decide the ties will take place on January 31.

When is the round of 16 of the Champions League?

The top eight teams and the play-off winners will take part in the first legs of the round of 16 on March 4 and 5, followed by the return legs a week later.

The draw for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will take place on February 21.