Trump inherits the fragile Gaza ceasefire

The cease-fire between Israel and Hamas, which is expected to begin its first phase on Sunday, has brought relief to the international community, but there are questions about whether the truce will hold, an issue President-elect Trump will have to oversee when take office next week.

Israel and Hamas have agreed on a fragile three-phase arrangement return hostages and prisoners and establish a permanent ceasefire in Gaza.

Trump, who acknowledged the cease-fire agreement, as did President Biden, appears to have wanted to take office with the conflict behind him, but will now have to manage the details of a tense pact that it could take months to resolve. He will also have to work closely with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and a complicated domestic situation in Israel.

John Hannah, a senior fellow at the Jewish Institute for National Security of America (JINSA), said Trump may have to take an interest in fully implementing the plan.

“He now inherits the deal, which still needs to be executed and implemented in all its different phases, and so I guess now he’s going to be invested in seeing that deal through to Phase 2,” Hannah said in a Thursday Webinar. “He will not want to see a restart of this war under his watch.”

Trump could also be persuaded to show interest if it is tied to an incentive, such as Israel normalize relations with Saudi Arabia, a process that was halted by the war and would be a major diplomatic success for his administration.

“If this gets wrapped up in broader normalization, then there’s a chance that it will maintain interest,” said Osamah Khalil, chair of Syracuse University’s international relations program. “But if it doesn’t look like the Saudis are going to step up, or that the price is too high for them to put significant pressure on Netanyahu, then you may see him lose interest.”

The outgoing Biden administration hopes Trump will continue the work done this week and in November, when a similar fragile a ceasefire was reached with Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas in Lebanon.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said Thursday that the Trump administration must ensure there is lasting peace in the region.

“For the incoming administration, I think it’s going to be important to continue to show that there is a path here, and what can be achieved by following that path, and then there’s another path, which is the perpetual violence, the destruction, the terrorism, despair for people.” he said in his last press conference.

“That’s the choice. I think we’ve now put in and done the work that, by delivering it, can be used to build a strong foundation and move down this much more positive path.”

The deal was confirmed by Netanyahu’s full cabinet on Friday afternoon.

The deal comes after 15 months of brutal fighting between Israel and Hamas, sparked by deadly attacks by the Palestinian militant group in southern Israel that killed about 1,200 people and took about 250 hostages.

Since then, more than 46,000 Palestinians have died in Gaza, according to the health ministry, and much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble. Palestinians in Gaza are also struggling with a humanitarian aid crisis.

Democrats worried about the toll of the war in Gaza have urged all sides to keep the deal and are likely to try to pressure Trump to end the deal.

Rep. Adam Smith (D-Wash.), ranking member of the House Armed Services Committee, had serious concerns about the ceasefire.

“I sincerely hope he does,” he said. “The US has to work very hard to make sure it does.”

Trump’s Republican allies are similarly cautious about any lasting ceasefire.

“As Reagan said, trust but verify,” said Rep. Michael McCaul (R-Texas), former chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee. “There is cautious optimism.”

The contours of the cease-fire agreement reached this week were largely the same as those announced by Biden in May 2024, after months of haggling between Israel and Hamas to reach another deal after a brief truce in November 2023 that freed about 100 hostages.

After Trump won the election in early November, his team became directly involved in helping broker another truce. Trump’s strong rhetoric also appeared to push things forward as he warned of “all hell to pay” if the hostages were not returned.

Trump sent his Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, to the region to help with ongoing negotiations in Doha, Qatar, along with Biden official Amos Hochstein. Experts interviewed for this story said Trump appeared to be the dominant factor in getting the deal across the finish line, along with his willingness to wield influence that Biden never did.

In the coming months, however, the relationship between the United States and Israel is likely to be tested as Netanyahu weighs the full implementation of the deal against his far-right coalition. He has widely opposed the implementation of the agreement and wants to destroy Hamas, the other target of the war in addition to freeing the hostages.

Annelle Sheline, a researcher in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said Trump’s influence could be decisive in putting pressure on Netanyahu, whose country depends on US military aid, if he chooses to exercise that power. .

“My concern … was that Trump’s interest in the deal only extends to the inauguration, which would last no longer than Monday,” he said. “I hope I’m wrong and that Trump is really interested in getting a deal. He’s talked about possibly winning a Nobel Peace Prize for this, but for that, he would need the ceasefire to hold.”

Some 94 hostages are still expected to be held in Gaza. In the agreement, the first phase will last about six weeks and will see the return of 33 of the most vulnerable hostages, including women, children and the elderly, in exchange for hundreds of Palestinian prisoners.

The second phase includes the release of the next round of hostages, likely men and male soldiers, along with a permanent end to the war. The ceasefire remains in place if negotiations continue.

This second phase will be crucial and could easily fracture during the talks. Experts are extremely pessimistic that a deal can be carried through to the end.

Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official, said the deal was an “initial and fragile step in a complex and volatile process,” and predicted tensions over hostage and prisoner exchanges.

“Both sides are likely to face significant internal pressures to advance to the next phase, although the risk of a resumption of hostilities remains high,” he said in an email. “Both Israel and Hamas will maintain a military presence in Gaza during the first phase of the deal, leaving open the strong possibility that fighting will resume.”

The third phase will also be complicated, as Hamas will return the bodies of dead hostages in exchange for a plan to rebuild Gaza after the war.

The question of how Gaza should be managed after the war has vexed Netanyahu, who has repeatedly pledged to maintain indefinite security control over the coastal strip.

Under the preliminary agreement, Israel is expected to withdraw from most of Gaza but maintain a security buffer zone. The critical Philadelphia Corridor on the Gaza-Egypt border and the Netzarim Corridor in central Gaza are expected to be controlled only by Israel during the negotiations.

It is unclear what the final security arrangements will look like, including whether an international coalition is needed to keep the peace and govern Gaza. And it is not clear who will carry out and pay for the reconstruction in Gaza.

The vagueness of the cease-fire agreement has frustrated both Israelis and Palestinians, who feel that the agreement reached has not addressed their most pressing concerns.

Ahmed Fouad Alkhatib, a Palestinian American and senior member of the Atlantic Council, said the deal does nothing for Palestinian freedom and does not create an effective tomorrow plan for Gaza that would free it from Hamas. He argued that it was dire for Palestinians in Gaza to secure a new government and political structure involving the Palestinian Authority that rules the West Bank, with the help of an Arab-led international coalition.

Alkhatib said he has little confidence in Trump, but hopes “there will be enough pressure to not completely forget about the Gaza Strip and stay engaged.”

“My concern is that the Trump team will forget about Gaza and move on to the regional aspects,” he said. “As long as this is out of the headlines, as long as the hostages have been returned, they will potentially move on from this, and that worries me greatly and immensely, not because they are incapable of doing anything, but because they will not prioritize the Gaza Strip this way.”

Ruth Wasserman Lande, a former member of the Knesset who lives in Israel, also said the deal was not good because it allowed Hamas to continue threatening Israel. He said that, at the very least, there must be a buffer zone to protect Israeli citizens after the war.

Lande said there is no choice but to trust Trump.

“He said he will help Israel. I put all my trust in him, hoping he will do what I think is necessary. And he said Hamas should not exist,” he said. “It remains to be seen what they will do, and I hope they do the right things.”

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