Tuesday’s special election in Virginia could provide early glimpse of gubernatorial race, 2026 midterms

A trio of special choices Tuesday in Virginia will give Americans a first look at suburban voting trends for the 2025 gubernatorial sweeps and 2026 midterms.

A federal election shakeup last cycle in formerly deep-red Loudoun County prompted a pair of state lawmakers to vacate their seats and announce bids for the next legislative level above them.

Loudoun, halfway between Charles Town, West Virginia, and Washington, DC, has trended blue in recent years amid the exurban sprawl of liberal Washingtonians leaving the District of Columbia, and has been the epicenter of the national controversies about transgender policies and assaults in schools.

Also, the upset of now-U.S. Rep. Bob Good, R-Va., in Lynchburg set the stage for a third special election, as Democrats control the Virginia state Senate by a single vote among Republicans. Government of Glenn Youngkin.

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While Democrats appear favored in both Loudoun races, political observers are taking Republicans’ performance in the — albeit typically thinly-turned — affairs as a sign of things to come once Youngkin is term-limited. from his perch at the end of this year.

Virginia and New Jersey — two states where President-elect Trump and the GOP outperformed but still lost — host odd-year gubernatorial elections that the mogul’s performance in 2024 already foreshadowed as must.

Youngkin’s performance in Loudoun and other blue counties didn’t win him the areas outright, but he got enough votes from former Gov. Terry McAuliffe to score a major statewide upset in 2021.

The GOP expects a similar showing this fall, and a win in both Loudoun’s seat and one of the Southside’s Senate seats would transfer control of the chamber to Republicans.

A Republican victory in the delegate seat would also lead to a tied lower house, eliminating the Democrats of unique leadership. A GOP sweep would give the party total control in Richmond not seen since George W. Bush was president.

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Virginia State Capitol in Richmond (AP Photo/Steve Helber, file)

Youngkin told Fox News Digital on Friday that he’s optimistic about Republicans’ chances on Tuesday, saying the two Loudoun candidates in particular have a chance to build on what he’s long dubbed Virginia. success story:

“Tumay Harding and Ram Venkatachalam are common-sense conservative leaders who will be incredible partners in our work to provide more tax relief to Virginia families, address the much-hated car tax, protect our communities from the dangerous policies of sanctuary city and keep parents at the table in their children’s lives,” Youngkin said.

“I look forward to meeting with Tumay, Ram and Virginians who are ready to bring strong representation to Loudoun County in Richmond.”

Delegate Kannan Srinivasan, D-Brambleton, announced a bid to succeed U.S. Rep. Suhas Subramanyam, D-Va., after the latter won the open seat of retiring Rep. Jennifer Wexton, D-Va.

This left Srinivasan’s House of Delegates seat open.

Venkatachalam, an Indian immigrant and Deloitte IT professional, highlighted on his campaign site his positions on several Loudoun community boards and his focus on lowering taxes and increasing public safety.

Singh, a former adviser to Sen. Christopher Coons, D-Del., and a Peace Corps veteran, is the Democratic nominee.

“Voters are experiencing a range of emotions after Trump won the election — there’s anger, frustration, disappointment, sadness,” Singh said. he told Politico.

“But when you communicate the stakes of this special election … the enthusiasm rises.”

In turn, Srinivasan, who was then Governor. Ralph Northam’s nominee for state Medicaid board: He faces Harding, a teacher and small business owner, for the open state Senate seat surrounding John Foster Dulles International Airport.

Signal at the Loudoun County line. (Getty)

In Southside Virginia, with Rep-elect. After Rep. John McGuire, R-Va., ousted Good from Congress, his heavily Republican Senate district has become vacant.

The sprawling district, which covers nearly a dozen counties or parts of them between Interstate 64 and US-460, includes a diverse mix of Richmond exurbs, Civil War landmarks and farmland.

Professor Jack Trammell of Randolph-Macon College in Ashland, Virginia, is the Democrat facing Republican Luther Cifers.

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Cifers, who grew up in a farming area outside Amelia Court House, Virginia, and now owns a company specializing in kayaks and fishing products, is heavily favored based on historical data.

“I’m not a politician, but I believe our government works best when hardworking citizens are involved,” Cifers said in a statement on his website.

Meanwhile, Trammell said in a statement published by the Henrico Democrats that he and his volunteers have been “all over the district talking to voters at events, on their porches and on the phone.”