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The resignation of Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau on Monday signals the extent of unpopularity facing the country’s progressive Liberal Party, which has dominated politics for decades, heading into elections later this year.
Trudeau’s decision to step down as party leader and prime minister sets off a competitive race for the party’s leadership and challenges the growing popularity of the opposition Conservatives in an election to be held by October 20 at the latest.
“I’m a fighter, every bone in my body has always told me to fight,” Trudeau said during a news conference announcing his resignation.
“This country deserves a real choice in the next election, and it has become clear to me that if I have to fight internal battles, I cannot be the best choice in this election.”
Why did Trudeau resign?
The rising cost of living, rising anti-immigrant sentiment and concerns about President-elect Trump’s economic threats to Canada have contributed to growing disillusionment with Trudeau’s leadership.
Having lost key allies in the Liberal Party and facing a likely vote of no confidence from conservative opponents and the New Democratic Party, Trudeau called for the Canadian Parliament to be prorogued until March 24.
Trudeau’s decision essentially freezes Parliament from doing any legislative work and gives the Liberals about three months to hold an internal election for the next party leader.
Trudeau said he intends to remain at the helm of the party until a new leader is chosen.
The deadline of March 24 is important and faces the deadline for the country’s annual budget and the opening of a new session of Parliament.
The Trump effect
Trump quickly began giving Trudeau headaches after winning the November election. The incoming president weeks later threatened a 25 percent tariff on Canadian exports to the US unless Ottawa took action against illegal immigration and drug trafficking across the border.
Trump’s threats and Trudeau’s efforts to appease the president-elect — taking a trip to the president-elect’s Florida residence at Mar-a-Lago — fueled criticism that the prime minister was weak.
For weeks, Trump has cast Trudeau as the “governor” of Canada and said the country should be the 51st state of the United States. Trump, in response to Trudeau’s resignation, said Canada could avoid tariffs and that “taxes would go down a lot” if the country merged with the US
Although Trump has suggested that “a lot of people” in Canada would like to be part of the US, a December 10 poll found that only 13 per cent of Canadians felt this way.
Who will take over?
Christopher Sands, director of the Wilson Center’s Canada Institute, said he wouldn’t be surprised if the Liberals moved quickly to hold an election and install a new prime minister.
That could demonstrate some stability ahead of Trump’s Jan. 20 inauguration and give the Liberals extra time to sell Canadians on their new leaders ahead of the general election.
“I suspect they’re going to be panicked enough that they don’t want anyone in charge when Trump signs all of his day one executive orders and starts running fast,” Sands said.
Sands listed a number of candidates for the top job, but said former Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland represents a clear break and change from Trudeau’s tenure.
“The fact that he resigned and triggered the crisis that led to Trudeau leaving is politically brilliant,” he said. “It makes a clear break between her and the prime minister so she can be the candidate for change.”
In mid-December, Freeland, also deputy prime minister, resigned in protest over Trudeau’s spending plans, accusing him of failing to address Trump’s tariff threats and the impact they could have on the Canadian economy.
Other names Sands floated include Mark Carney, the former governor of the Bank of Canada and Trudeau ally; the Minister of Foreign Affairs, Mélanie Joly; and the Minister of Industry, François-Philippe Champagne.
Sands also raised the possibility of Canadian Transport Minister Anita Anand, whom he called “a star of the Trudeau government,” saying she rose to prominence through her success in procuring vaccines and personal protective equipment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Former defense minister, credited with completing Canada’s purchase of F-35 fighter jets from the US
Conservatives on the rise
The Conservative Party led by Pierre Poilievre is well positioned to take power when elections are held this year. They have a 24-point lead over the Liberals, according to the report recent data.
Poilievre has been described as Trump figure, presenting himself as a victim of the elite and the media, with a penchant for insults and provocations.
The Conservative platform includes the elimination of a liberal carbon tax, a tax intended to encourage consumers and businesses to choose more environmentally friendly energy production.
“Drop the tax,” Poilievre said in a video message responding to Trudeau’s resignation.
Canadian voters are also increasingly frustrated with the Liberals over the cost of living, immigration and crime.
“Trudeau was great at making sunny announcements, but terrible at delivering results,” Sands said.
Passing fights ahead
The Canadian government is expected to propose its new budget in April, a process that would allow opposition parties to trigger a no-confidence vote, bring down the government and head for an election.
The high cost of living, Trump’s tariff threats and criticism from the U.S. and others that Canada may not meet NATO’s 2% defense spending guidelines by 2032 are some of the headaches which their next leaders will have to face.
The vast majority of Canadians (or 86 percent) are concerned about Trump’s threats, according to data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute in Canada. Half of Canadians say they prefer a hard-line approach, “meaning even if tariffs are eventually implemented, they don’t think Canada should be bullied.”
Canadians are generally pessimistic about the state of the economy and nervous about the impact the incoming Trump administration could have on it, according to Bloomberg/Nanos Research.
Findings for the last week of December showed a decline in overall positivity from 49.96 the previous week to 49.08. according to a report from Canadian industry news site Wealth Professional. A reading below 50 indicates negative sentiment.
