Will California sell gas cars after 2035? Nobody knows for sure.

Although the Biden administration approved California’s effort to ban new gas car sales by 2035, the Golden State’s automotive future remains uncertain.

The incoming Trump administration is likely to try to undo the December approval, and a wave of litigation is also likely to challenge the Biden administration’s decision.

But President-elect Trump’s planned actions could also face court challenges. And California could have more tricks up its sleeve to push its market toward electric vehicles, regardless of what Trump does.

“There’s a tremendous amount of uncertainty about whether the rule goes into effect — a lot of moving parts. It’s going to be a while before we know the answer to that question,” said Ann Carlson, a former Biden administration official who now is a professor of environmental law at the University of California, Los Angeles.

The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) sets its own rules for the nation about how many emissions car manufacturers’ fleets can emit. The rules proposed by the Biden administration are so strict that they will require a important part of the car market to convert to electric, but do not completely ban gas cars.

The Clean Air Act prevents states from setting rules that differ from the federal government, although because California has historically dealt with unique smog problems, the law provides an exemption that allows it to seek a waiver to set its own rules that they go beyond the federal ones.

The Biden administration recently granted that waiver,allowing the new California standardswhich ban the sale of gas cars by 2035 to take effect.

Eleven more states and Washington, D.C., which together with California account for more than 30 percent of the nation’s auto market, have adopted California’s rule, meaning they are also poised to move away from gas-powered cars.

In theory, this makes the California government a major change in the American auto market and a giant step in the country’s fight against the climate crisis.

But a tangled web of laws, policies and market considerations make the actual expected outcome of the rule less clear.

The EPA’s approval of California’s gas car ban will surely come with lawsuits. Republican-led states, oil, gasoline and ethanol producers and the auto industry are among the parties that could sue to try to overturn the rules.

At the same time, the Trump administration is also likely to revoke the waiver through the regulatory process, though that action could also spur lawsuits from supporters of the California rule.

The EPA’s own standards, which if left unchanged could mean that only 29 percent of cars sold nationwide by 2032 run on gas, will face similar legal uncertainty. The national rule is already facing a lawsuit and Trump’s threats to overturn it.

However, any future Trump rule could also face legal hurdles from green groups that would argue it is not strict enough.

As the legal process unfolds, it’s unclear to automakers what their requirements will be for the sale of electric vehicles at the national or state level.

“Navigating these challenges is especially acute for highly regulated auto manufacturers and suppliers because of our multi-year design and manufacturing cycles and the significant capital expenditures required to bring any new vehicle to market,” said John Bozzella, president of the pressure group Alliance for Automotive Innovation. , he said in a recent memo to Trump. He also called the current federal and California rules “out of step” with market realities.

California could try to implement a side deal with automakers amid potential political and legal battles.

After the latest Trump administration revoked an Obama-era EPA authorization for California to set car standards, the state and several automakerssigned a dealto increase the fuel efficiency of their car fleets.

“If companies are looking for certainty, their best effort will be to reach an agreement with California,” said Margo Oge, who led the EPA’s office of transportation and air quality for nearly two decades.

Oge said that if I were a car company, “I would want to know, at least for the larger US market, that I can offer cars.”

A spokesman for the California Air Resources Board did not directly respond to The Hill’s question about whether the state would pursue a similar deal this time around. Instead, the spokesman directed The Hill to the agency’s news release about the EPA waiver in which California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) said, “Clean cars are here to stay. .. California can meet the challenge of protecting our people by cleaning up our air and reducing pollution.”

If the automakers reach such a deal, it’s unclear how much of the new cars sold would be electric, and by what timeline, according to the deal.

Another wild card is that Republicans may try a shortcut: the Congressional Review Act (CRA). This law allows simple majorities in the House and Senate to override a recent regulatory rule with the approval of the president.

The Government Accountability Office, a nonpartisan congressional watchdog, said that EPA exemption is not subject to be annulled under the CRA.

But Republicans could still try to use the tool anyway, said Carlson, who was acting administrator of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration under President Biden.

He added that this would almost certainly spur “a follow-up lawsuit, … arguing that the Congressional Review Act does not, in fact, apply to the waivers.”

Asked whether the GOP would pursue a CRA, a spokesman for Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (RW.Va.) did not directly respond, saying the incoming chair of the Environment and Public Works Committee would pursue any avenue possible to reverse the situation. The action of the Biden administration.

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