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Elon Musk had an event in 2024, what with his persistence in right-wing politics and the use of his platform X and the great influence of the support Donald Trump win the presidential election.
Putting politics aside for a moment, it’s worth looking at Musk’s other game: promising Tesla.
The Tesla CEO’s promises — and the deadlines he’s repeatedly missed — have been the primary thread in Tesla’s story. And they’ve always had an attractive appearance that attracted the attention of investors and helped raise the price of Tesla stock, giving the company an advantage. worth $1.3 trillion. There were rumors in 2015 that Tesla cars will be self-driving for two yearsthat driverless roads across the country it will be supported by the end of 2017, and Tesla owners will be able to get money through the main driverless network in 2020.
And while Tesla has cemented its place in the history books for building and selling millions of electric cars, none of the above promises (or many others) have been fulfilled.
But that didn’t stop Musk from making more promises in 2024. Here’s a breakdown of those promises and where he expects them to be fulfilled.
$25,000 EV
Only in 2024, Musk promised to reveal $25,000 EV, that is he lost in April to prioritize the appearance of robotaxi – a decision that led mass layoffs as Tesla pursued the “next stage of growth”.
Musk is curled up if a low-cost EV comes to market. But on Tesla’s third-quarter earnings call, Musk said the idea of building a $25,000 car with a steering wheel and pedals is “absurd” and “ridiculous.” He said the only car he could sell at that price was the Cybercab.
Meanwhile, an analyst asked if Tesla could make a low-cost EV that isn’t a Cybercab, and Musk replied that all of the company’s cars going forward will be autonomous. He added that of the 7 million cars Tesla has produced so far, “many” are “autonomous,” and that Tesla is “currently producing 35,000 cars a week.” Musk is using a loose definition of autonomous here, because Tesla still doesn’t make cars that are safe to use without a human behind the wheel.
(Flashback: Musk promised earlier in 2016, in a since-removed post on Tesla’s website, that “All Tesla Cars Now Being Produced Will Be Fully Self-Driving,” and that the program would only need to convert older Teslas into self-driving. cars. This did not happen, and Tesla had to upgrade the cars with old equipment.)
It is also worth noting that during the earnings call, Musk said that he expects the growth of cars to reach 20% to 30% in 2025 due to “affordable cars” and “the advent of autonomy.”
Start production on the Cybercab by 2025 or 2026
Tesla unveiled 20 Cybercab prototypes at a glitzy Hollywood event in October, and Musk took the opportunity to share plans for the car, as well as Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (FSD) program. FSD is Tesla’s advanced driver assistance system that can handle many driving tasks, but still requires a person to stay alert behind the wheel and take control when needed.
Musk told customers that one day he would be able to buy a robotaxi — a two-door, two-seater vehicle with no steering wheel or pedals — for less than $30,000. He added that the average cost of a Cybercab will drop over time to $0.20 per mile. And he said Tesla will start producing purpose-built AVs in 2025 or 2026.
(Flashback: Musk said in 2022 that Tesla will to produce more robotaxis by 2024. Before that, in 2019, he said that Tesla will be million robotaxis on the roads by 2020. Musk has promised that Tesla will be rolling out self-driving cars “next year” starting in 2016.)
A few weeks later, when Tesla received the third payment, Musk said Tesla will reach “volume production in ’26,” and the company “needs at least 2 million units per year of the Cybercab.”
Current laws that require vehicles to be equipped with other safety features, such as manual overrides, may remain roadblocks for Tesla to release its Cybercabs. National Highway Traffic Safety Administration recently they want new laws which would help keep such vehicles exempt, but would require companies to share information with the agency, such as accident reports. Today, car manufacturers are required to report accidents when ADAS or self-driving technology is active.
Musk has opposed the law in the past, and President Donald Trump’s transition team says so learning to get rid of it.
Robovan in development
At the unveiling of Tesla’s robotaxi, the company also introduced investors as Robovan. At that time Musk did not share the plan of the car, but in November he did written on X that Robovan is growing, along with “other things.”
(Flashback: In 2016, Musk said Tesla would start making minibuses using the Model X chassis for two or three years.)
“Unsupervised FSD” is autonomous snow in 2025
During the event, Musk also promised that Model 3 and Model Y owners will be able to use the “unsupervised” version of FSD in California and Texas in 2025.
It was not, and still is not known, what Musk meant by “unsupervised” FSD. Today, Tesla’s FSD is still not autonomous, and to clear up any confusion, Tesla this year started referring to the program as “FSD management.” Removing supervision could mean that Tesla is planning to remove the driver, or it could mean that Tesla is planning to offer a Level 3 autonomous system that allows drivers to go hands-on, checking part of their journey.
At the time when Tesla received the third phase, Musk promised that the unsupervised FSD would be another phase as well. He said he hopes to establish a project that will allow people snow self-driving Teslas in California and Texas in 2025. He also said that Tesla has started testing jobs in the Bay Area with employees.
(Story: There are several licensing levels required to test and deploy autonomous vehicles in California. Tesla has had permission to test AVs and driver safety in the front seat since 2015, but the Department of Motor Vehicles told TechCrunch in October that. Tesla said it used the license in 2019.)
It is not clear if Tesla wants to start the snow service with robotaxis or if it is the owners of the existing Tesla Model 3 and Model Y. Tesla’s first-quarter earnings included teasing Tesla’s future software, and the company has for years teased the idea of a public transportation network using Teslas modified to drive autonomously. The idea is similar to Uber’s, only Tesla owners can add fully equipped self-driving cars to the automaker’s software to generate additional revenue when the cars aren’t being used. Tesla would take 25% to 30% of the money.
Finally, during Tesla’s first quarter call, Musk said Tesla was in talks with a “major automaker” to license FSD, but so far has not announced anything.
“More than a thousand Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025
Musk has promised more about Optimus, Tesla’s humanoid robot. At Tesla’s annual meeting, Musk promised that Tesla will move to “minimum production” of Optimus next year, with “more than 1,000, or several thousand, Optimus robots working at Tesla” in 2025. He also said that he expects Optimus to be for sale by 2026. In a post on XThe billionaire CEO added that he hopes to have more Optimus bots for use by other companies in 2026.
He didn’t say whether the bots would work permanently, or if they ever would controlled by people from afaras was the case during Tesla’s robotaxi unveiling event in October.
(Story: Although humanoid robots are advancing to the point of being able to perform certain tasks, many experts say that real robotics is still years away due to a lack of training.)
Aside from the manufacturing promises, Musk predicted that Optimus could one day raise Tesla’s market cap to $25 trillion. That’s about it seven times Apple’s current market is Nvidia. At the end of December, Tesla’s market cap was about $1.42 trillion, which is about 160% from the $550 billion market cap before Trump won the presidential election.
Have we missed anything? Feel free to reach out to rebecca.bellan@techcrunch.com.
