The Hitchhiker’s Guide to Not Picking a Speaker of the House Quickly

The issue has been leaking for a while.

It has been underground. It hides beneath the surface. Not necessarily noticeable.

Except those who follow the Congress up close

But the issue has come to a head since the House stumbled badly trying to avert a government shutdown last week.

DOZENS OF HOUSE LAWMAKERS MEET TO FUND AFGHANISTAN VISA PROGRAMS AS TRUMP VRIES TO CUT OVER SPENDING

To know:

Congress was faced with a staggering 1,500-page spending bill. He then defeated a narrow 116-page bill, which President-elect Trump signed into law. Things got worse when the House only called for a meager 174 yes votes for the Trump-backed bill, with 38 Republicans voting against it. Circumstances escalated further when the House voted to avoid a holiday government shutdown, but passed the bill with more Democrats (196) than Republicans (170). Thirty-four parliamentarians voted against.

It was very likely that Speaker of the House Mike JohnsonR-La., could face a challenge to win the speaker’s gavel immediately when the new Congress convenes at noon ET on Jan. 3. Congressional insiders knew Johnson could be in trouble once the contours of the House majority came into focus. weeks after the November election. This could turn into a full-blown crisis for Johnson, and House Republicans, when voting for the speaker begins a little after 1:00 PM ET next Friday.

Johnson emerges bruised from last week’s government-funded Donnybrook. Between four and ten Republicans could oppose Johnson in the race for speakers.

DONALD TRUMP SAYS MIKE JOHNSON WILL ‘EASY FOLLOW THE PROCEEDS’ IF HE ACTS ‘DECISIVE AND TOUGH’ ON SPENDING BILLS

Here’s the math:

The Chamber has 434 members with one vacancy. This is thanks to the former Rep. Matt GaetzR-Fla. He resigned his position for this Congress a few weeks ago. Although Gaetz won re-election in November, his resignation letter – read in the chamber – indicated that he did not plan to serve in the new Congress, which begins in January.

Here’s the breakdown as Congress begins: 219 Republicans to 214 Democrats.

Trump’s pick for national security adviser Representative Michael WaltzR-Fla., now remains in the House. So does Rep. Elise Stefanik, RN.Y. Trump tapped her to serve as U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. That is pending Senate confirmation, perhaps in late January or early February. Once Waltz and Stefanik resign, the Republican majority shrinks to 217-214.

But the election of the speaker on January 3 presents a special challenge. Here’s the bar for Johnson, or anyone else: The Speaker of the House must obtain an absolute majority of all members voting for someone by name. In other words, the person with the most votes does not win. That’s what happened repeatedly to former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, R-Calif., when he routinely beat out House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., for speaker to start this Congress in January 2023. But McCarthy took days to cross the pass. appropriate threshold.

More on that in a moment.

So let’s look at Mike Johnson’s math. If there are 219 Republicans and four voted for someone other than him, and all Democrats voted for Jeffries, the count is 215-214. But there is no speaker. No one achieved an absolute majority of all members voting for someone by name. The magic number is 218 if all 434 members vote.

As a rule, this paralyzes the House. The House absolutely, unequivocally, cannot do anything until it elects a speaker. period

The House cannot swear members. Technically, they are still elected representatives. Only after the House has chosen its speaker does he or she in turn take the oath of membership.

Certainly the House cannot pass laws. He cannot form committees. It is frozen in a parliamentary deadlock until it chooses a spokesperson.

Now, I hope you are seated for the next part.

This also means that the House cannot certify the results of the Electoral College, doing Trump the 47th president of the United States on January 6.

Failure to elect a Speaker forces the House to vote again and again…

And more… and… more…

Until it finally hits someone.

McCarthy’s election incinerated 15 ballots over five days two years ago.

The House settled into a three-week congressional cryogenic freeze after members expelled McCarthy in October 2023. He burned two speaker candidates: House Majority Leader Steve Scalise, R-La., and House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, R-Minn. . – and one candidate on the table: Rep. Jim Jordan, R-Ohio.

So you see the problem.

Consider for a moment that before last year, the House had never gone to a second vote to select a speaker since Speaker Frederick Gillett, R-Mass., in 1923.

It took 63 votes before the House finally decided on Speaker Howell Cobb, D-Ga., in 1849.

But that’s nothing. The longest speaker election was consumed by two months before the House elected Speaker Nathaniel Banks, R-Mass., in 1856 on the 133rd ballot.

So anything that extends this into a collision with January 6, the legal day to certify election results and now one of the most ignominious days in American history, is dangerous.

JOHNSON’S ALLIES URGE TRUMP TO INTERVENE WITH MESSY SPEAKER BATTLE THREATS TO DELAY 2024 CERTIFICATION

To be clear: there is no doubt that Trump won the election. A repeat riot at the Capitol like four years ago is not expected. But not certifying the Electoral College on the day it’s supposed to be completed, especially after the 2021 experience, is playing with fire. Such a scenario would again reveal another vulnerability, never considered before, in the fragile American political system.

On January 6, the House and Senate are scheduled to meet in a joint session of Congress to tabulate and certify the electoral votes. Any dispute over a state’s electoral vote roll requires the House and Senate to debate and vote separately on those results. The election is not final until the joint session concludes and the vice president, in this case Kamala Harris, in her capacity as president of the Senate, announces a winner.

Congress is not required to certify the Electoral College on the calendar day of January 6. In reality, there is some wiggle room to close things. In 2021, the Electoral College was not certified until 3:52 a.m. on January 7. It only becomes a major problem if this goes on until midday on January 20th. That’s when the Constitution prescribes that the president-elect take office. oath of office

What happens if the Electoral College is not resolved on January 20? Well, President Biden is done. So he’s gone. Same with Harris. Next in line of presidential succession is the Speaker of the House. Well, there is no speaker. So who becomes president?

Well, at that time there is a president pro tempore of the Senate, the oldest member of the majority party. He or she is fourth in line to the presidency. At this time, the chair pro tempore is Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash. But Republicans claim control of the chamber in early January. And unlike the House, if it gets in the way with a speaker, the Senate works. That means Sen. Chuck Grassley, 91, R-Iowa, becomes president pro tempore of the Senate. Grassley has served in the Senate since 1981.

If the House is still wasting its time trying to elect a speaker on January 20, Grassley will likely become “acting speaker.”

I write “likely” because this enters serious and extra-constitutional territory. These are unprecedented scenarios. Strange lands never visited in the American political experience.

CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP

And it all depends on whether Mike Johnson, or frankly someone else, ends the vote for speaker with the January 3 office. Any interregnum like the last election of two speakers begins to set challenging historical precedents.

But frankly, it’s not clear whether the House can avoid these setbacks.

It’s about the math. And once again, balancing this parliamentary equation is tenuous at best.