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What does this mean for the season ahead and how often do teams in those positions stay there come May? Let’s break it down.
Does being the best at Christmas guarantee the title?
Historically, being top on Christmas offers a mixed perspective.
In 16 out of 32 Premier League seasons, the team currently leading the table has lifted the trophy – that’s a 50% success rate.
Liverpool, however, have a less encouraging performance. This is the seventh time they have been first on December 25, but they have only managed to turn one of those leads into a title, in the 2019-20 season.
Where will your team spend Christmas? 🎄#FestiveFixtures pic.twitter.com/gvP1axTs40
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 23, 2024
In fact, Liverpool have topped the table on Christmas Day more than any other English club in history, achieving the feat 21 times and winning the league 11 times.
Recent history shows the unpredictability of leading on Christmas. Arsenal, for example, topped the table for the fourth time in the Premier League era last season, but failed to secure the title, as they did in the previous three attempts.
In contrast, Chelsea, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City have won the title every time they have led on Christmas Day.
Interestingly, teams outside the top four have occasionally surged for the title on Christmas Day.
It has happened four times, including last season when Manchester City climbed from fifth place, six points behind Arsenal, to win their fourth consecutive league title.
Who is in the European videos?
The current top four consists of Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and a surprising competitor – Nottingham Forest.
Fifth-placed Bournemouth could even sneak into the Champions League conversation depending on how other English clubs fare in European competitions.
Chelsea’s 04/05 record of 15 goals conceded in the Premier League is officially safe for another season 🤩 pic.twitter.com/dQe3ExglQC
— Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 22, 2024
Aston Villa and Manchester City are sixth and seventh respectively, which could be a place in the Europa League and Conference League, depending on the winners of the domestic cups.
It’s worth noting that last season’s Christmas top seven saw a significant shift towards the end of the campaign. Only West Ham (sixth at the time) were relegated, while Chelsea rose from 10th to finish in the top seven.
Relegation: Who is in trouble?
At the other end of the table are Ipswich, Wolves and Southampton in the relegation zone.
Southampton’s position looks particularly bad, as they are eight points adrift at the bottom. Wolves and Southampton have both recently appointed new managers in a bid to turn their fortunes around.
It’s rare for the same three teams in the relegation zone at Christmas to stay there in May, but it does happen.
Last season, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United remained in the bottom three from Christmas to the last day.
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 23, 2024
This has only happened in four other Premier League seasons:
- 2001-02: Derby, Leicester, Ipswich
- 2012-13: Wigan, QPR, Reading
- 2020-21: Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United
Being bottom on Christmas Day offers little hope, as only four teams out of 32 can avoid relegation in such a scenario. The exceptions are West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester City (2014-15) and Wolves (2022-23).
Interestingly, two clubs in the Premier League era were in the top 10 at Christmas but still suffered relegation: Norwich City (seventh in 1994-95) and Blackpool (10th in 2010-11).
For context, the team currently sitting in seventh place – Manchester City – are unlikely to follow in those footsteps.
What awaits us?
As the league enters the second half of the season, Liverpool’s prospects of turning their Christmas lead into a title remain uncertain given their history, while Southampton face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.
With European football on the horizon for several teams and the relegation battle heating up, the Premier League promises plenty of drama in the coming months.
