India’s road to WTC finals after Adelaide defeat explained

India’s journey to the final of the ICC World Test Championship (WTC) has become considerably more difficult after a ten-wicket loss to Australia in the second Test of the Border-Gavaskar Trophy at the Adelaide Oval. With this loss, India dropped to third place in the WTC standings, with the points percentage (PCT) falling to 57.29.

Australia reclaimed the top spot with a PCT of 60.71, while South Africa remains in second place, poised to overtake if they win their current test Sri Lanka. With only three matches remaining in the current WTC cycle, India need to be near flawless in their remaining matches to keep their last hopes alive.

What should India do?

India now faces a tough task. For direct qualification without dependence on other results:

• India must win all three remaining Tests: This will take their PCT to 64.05, securing a spot in the finals.
• If India win two matches and draw one: Their PCT will rise to 60.52, which should also be enough.
• Any further losses or additional withdrawals: India would then rely on favorable outcomes in other matches involving Australia and South Africa.

Scenarios if India fail to win 4-1

If India cannot secure wins in their remaining three Tests, they will need other results to go in their favour. Let’s explore the different outcomes:

1. If India win 3-2:

• India will finish with 134 points and a PCT of 58.77.
• Australia, with only two more matches against Sri Lanka, cannot surpass this PCT.
• South Africa can top that only if they win both their remaining matches against Sri Lanka and Pakistan.

2. If India win 3-1:

• India’s PCT will improve to 60.52.
• Australia, even with consecutive victories, cannot cross this line.
• This scenario guarantees India a place in the finals, barring an outstanding performance from South Africa.

3. If the series ends 2-2:

• India’s PCT would fall to 57.01.
• Australia would surpass that if they win both remaining Tests against Sri Lanka.
• A 2-0 win for Australia over Sri Lanka would knock India out of the competition.

Role of Australia and South Africa

Australia currently lead the standings but will depend on their results against Sri Lanka to secure their last place. South Africa, with Tests against Sri Lanka and Pakistan remaining, remain a significant threat Indiachances.

Can India achieve the impossible?

With little margin for error, India have to regroup and deliver good performances in their upcoming matches. Skipper Rohit Sharma and the team will look to take advantage of the home conditions and secure their place in a third consecutive WTC final.

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