ChatGPT’s second birthday: What will gen AI (and the world) look like in another two years?

It’s been two years since ChatGPT first appeared on November 30, 2022. At the time of launch, OpenAI considered ChatGPT as a demonstration project for how people could use the tool and the underlying GPT 3.5. the main language (LLM).

The LLM is a model established by transformer design It was first introduced by Google in 2017, which uses self-monitoring techniques to process and create human-like content in everything from understanding natural language. It was more than just a successful exhibition project! OpenAI was as surprised as anyone by the rapid adoption of ChatGPT, which reached a million users within two months.

Although maybe he shouldn’t have been surprised. Futurist Kevin Kelly, and co-founder Wired, he advised in 2014 that “the business plans of the next 10,000 startups are easy to predict: Take X and add AI. This is a big challenge, and now it’s here.

Kelly said this a few years before ChatGPT. However, this is what has actually happened. The most interesting thing is his prophecy itself Wired that: “By 2024, Google’s biggest product will not be search but AI.” It can be denied if this is true, but it could happen soon. Gemini is Google’s social AI tool, but the AI ​​likes its search and possibly any of its features, including YouTube features, TensorFlow and AI in Google Workspace.

Bot heard all over the world

The rapid pace of AI startups that Kelly foresaw grew exponentially after the launch of ChatGPT. You could call it the AI ​​big bang moment, or the bot heard around the world. And it jumped into the field of AI design – a large group of LLMs for text models and graphic design divisions. This peaked, or what Gartner calls the “Peak of Inflated Expectations” in 2023.

The hype for 2023 may have subsided, but only slightly. And others comparisonthere are 70,000 AI companies worldwide, representing a 100% increase since 2017. This is a veritable Cambrian explosion of companies pursuing new AI projects. AI technology. Kelly’s 2014 prediction of AI startups proved it.

If anything, big venture capital continues to pour into startup companies looking to use AI. The New York Times he said that investors poured in $27.1 billion in AI startups in the US in the second quarter of 2024 alone, “accounting for nearly half of all US startup spending by then.” Statistics he added: “In the first nine months of 2024, AI-related investments made up 33% of all investments in VC-backed companies located in the US. The huge potential market is attractive to both startups and established companies.

The latest Reuters Institute research Users reported that use of ChatGPT was limited in six countries, including the US and the UK. a number of factors, from lack of knowledge to concerns about personal safety. Does this mean the impact of AI is enough? Even so, as the majority of respondents expect gen AI to affect every segment of society in the next five years.

The business sector tells a very different story. As he said VentureBeatan industry research firm GAI images it is estimated that 33% of businesses will have gen AI software in production next year. Businesses often have clear use cases, such as improving customer service, improving performance and enhancing decision-making, which drive faster adoption than among consumers. For example, healthcare companies are using AI to capture documents and financial services are using fraud detection technology. GAI also stated that gen AI is the priority of the 2025 budget for CIOs and CTOs.

What’s next? From gen AI to the dawn of intelligence

The inconsistent release of gen AI raises questions about what is expected to be implemented in 2025 and beyond. Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and OpenAI CEO Sam Altman suggest that artificial general intelligence (AGI) – or superintelligence – may appear in the next two to 10 years, potentially reshaping our world. AGI is considered to be the ability of AI to understand, learn and perform any intelligent task that a human can, thereby mimicking human cognitive abilities in various domains.

Sparks of AGI in 2025

Like report in MiscellaneousAltman said that we can see the first observations of AGI as soon as 2025. It is possible that he was talking about AI assistants, where you can give an AI system a difficult task and it will use different tools to complete it.

For example, Anthropic recently introduced a Computer Application Service which allows developers to guide Claude chatbot “to use computers the way people do – by looking at the screen, moving the cursor, clicking buttons and typing.” This allows developers to assign tasks to Claude, such as scheduling meetings, answering emails or analyzing data, with the bot interacting with the computer as if it were a human user.

In a demonstration, Anthropic showed how Claude could plan a day’s journey for himself by interacting with computers – an early glimpse of how AI assistants could manage complex tasks.

In September, Salesforce said “It’s ushering in the third phase of the AI ​​revolution, helping businesses deploy AI assistants alongside the workforce.” He sees agents looking for repetitive, low-cost tasks, which frees up people to focus on more important things. These assistants can help employees focus on technology, problem solving or customer relationship management.

With features such as Computer Applications from Anthropic and AI assistants from Salesforce and others, the emergence of AI assistants is one of the most anticipated trends in the industry. According to Gartner.

While businesses are expected to benefit the most from technological AI, the concept of “circular intelligence” represents a major shift, where connected technologies add to everyday life.

In 2016, I wrote in TechCrunch of ambient intelligence, such as “digital communication to create information and services that improve our lives. This is supported by a powerful combination of computing platforms, cloud and big data, neural networks and deep learning using graphics processing units (GPUs) to create artificial intelligence (AI).”

At the time, I said that connecting these technologies and crossing the boundaries needed to provide a seamless, transparent and event-based experience would take time to realize. It is safe to say that after eight years, this vision is close to being realized.

Five levels of AGI

According to OpenAI’s roadmap, the journey to AGI involves progressing through machines that are increasingly capable, with AI assistants (level 3 out of 5) showing a big leap in autonomy.

Altman he said that the initial effect of these agents will be limited. Although eventually AGI “will be more powerful than people think.” This shows that we should expect a big change in the near future that will require urgent changes to ensure a fair and ethical relationship.

How will advances in AGI change industries, the economy, the workforce and our AI capabilities in the coming years? We can imagine that the future that is about to be driven by the advancement of AI will be exciting and disruptive, which brings with it challenges and challenges.

Balancing successes and failures

Success may extend to the discovery of AI-engineered medicines, precision agriculture and helpful humanoid robots. While achievements promise change, the path forward is not without its dangers. Rapid adoption of AI can also lead to significant disruptions, especially job losses. This migration can be huge, especially in terms of wealth they enter the economywhen companies are looking to shed wages but remain efficient. If this happens, public push for AI including mass protests is possible.

As the evolution of AI progresses from artificial tools to autonomous systems and beyond, humanity stands at the cusp of a new era. Will this progress improve human skills, or will it create problems we are not prepared to deal with? Obviously, there will be both. In the long run, AI will not be part of our tools – it will integrate with life itself, become ubiquitous and reshape the way we work, connect and experience the world.

Gary Grossman is EVP of technology at Edelman is the global leader of the Edelman AI Center of Excellence.